November 20, 2009, by Jocelyn Richgels. 

 

Senator Max Baucus had to return to Montana for a family emergency, so the Senate can't proceed with debate on their newly released health reform bill until he returns.  Without him, they are one vote further away from reaching that magic 60 needed to proceed with debate.  And that highlights the tenuous situation the Democrats find themselves in as they try to match the House and pass their version of health reform. 

 

The significant nature of health reform, and the contentious issues surrounding it, means that before Senators can vote on health reform, with a simple majority of 51 needed for passage of the legislation, 60 Senators need to vote to agree to move forward with debate.  Effectively that means most pieces of legislation need 60 votes to pass in the Senate, not 51.  The Democrats have exactly 60 Senators that caucus with them (58 Democrats and 2 Independents).  With Senator Olympia Snowe being perhaps the only Republican willing to vote to move forward on debate, that means every vote really does count in the Democratic caucus. 

 

But that does not mean every one of those 60 Members are lock-step in line on voting to move forward with debate, much less for the vote of passage of the bill.  Hardly any conversation focuses on how to get 51 votes to actually pass the legislation, but instead, what procedures can be implemented to get all 60 votes to just start debate, what tweaks are needed for those four or five undecided Democrats (and one Independent, Joe Lieberman).  And do those tweaks then mean you risk losing one of the most liberal members of the Democratic Caucus. 

 

Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE) is one of those four or five undecided Democrats.  He has recently stated that he is "very comfortable having my vote, whatever it is, whichever way it goes."  He has concerns about the costs of the bill, although the CBO has said the Senate bill will reduce the deficit over time, which Senator Nelson indicated is a step in the right direction.  And then there is the public option and what form it takes - an opt-in or opt-out program - that will sway Senator Nelson's support.

 

Senators Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), who find themselves representing states that continue to become redder and redder in their voting patterns, have the same concerns as Senator Nelson.  They find themselves with constituents who are skeptical of health reform in general, the costs and the public option.  Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT), once a Democratic, now an Independent, has clearly and unequivocally stated recently that he will filibuster with the Republicans any bill that has a public option.  And then there is Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV), who recently became the longest serving Member of any chamber, but whose health means his participation in votes is never certain.  And the list goes on.....

 

And this 60 vote threshold needs to be achieved not just to start debate, but again to close down debate, before a vote on final passage can take place.  And then all over one more time for a vote on the final conference report.  Every vote really does count.